Geothermal energy is increasingly contributing to the power supply world wide. Iceland is world-leader in expanding development of geothermal utilization: in recent years the annual power supply here doubled to more than 500 MW alone in the supply of electricity. And also in Germany, a dynamic development is to be seen: over 100 MW of heat are currently being provided through geothermal energy. Alone in the region of Travale, in the pioneering country Italy, a team of european scientists have localizied geothermal reservoirs, holding a potential comparable to the effectiveness of 1.000 wind power plants. This is one of the results presented at the international final conference of the project „I-GET" (Integrated Geophysical Exploration Technologies for deep fractured geothermal systems) in Potsdam. The aim of this European Union project, in which seven european nations participated, was the development of cutting-edge geophysical methods with which potential geothermal reservoirs can be safely explored and directly tapped. The new methods deliver important decision-support for the selection of sites for future geothermal projects. With this we can considerably reduce the risk of expensive misdrills explains Dr. Ernst Huenges, Head of Geothermal Research at the host institute GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences.
The newly developed approaches have been tested at four European geothermal locations with different geological and thermodynamic conditions: high-temperature reservoirs have been examined in Travale/Italien (metamorphic rocks) and in Hengill/Island (volcanic rocks), two deposits with medium-temperature in deep sediment rocks are Groß-Schönebeck/Germany and Skierniewice/Poland. The methodology is based on the measurement of seismic velocities and electrical conductivity in the underground which deliver information on the rock-physical characteristics at depth. Different methods have, hereby, been combined, in addition to borehole measurements and rock-analysis.
I-GET experiments have been carried out using a case study in the surrounding of the GFZ research borehole at Groß Schönebeck, nordwest of Berlin. And here, extensive pre-knowledge from experimental investigations in the in situ geothermal-laboratory in Groß Schönebeck is already available. The geological conditions prevailing in the North German Basin are representative for further parts of central Europe, and thus the research results are also of high interest beyond Germany's borders. The GFZ, member of the Helmholtz-Association of German Research Centres, had the leading role in I-GET and was able to contribute with is acquired knowledge in the field of low-temperature geothermal reservoirs. The results of I-GET emanate worldwide: experts from Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia, Japan and the USA were among the 120 scientists and industry representatives from the 20 countries who participated at the meeting. „Reliable geothermal technologies are in demand worldwide. Even countries with a long experience in geothermal energy such as Indonesia and New Zealand are interested in the results acquired in I-GET", says Dr. Ernst Huenges. Therefore, the GFZ is further developing its geothermal research and is currently setting up an International Centre for Geothermal Research, which will, in particular, carry out application-oriented large-scale projects on a national and international level.
Eckhard Boles, co-founder of the Swiss biofuel company Butalco GmbH and a professor at Goethe-University in Frankfurt, Germany, has discovered a new enzyme which teaches yeast cells to ferment xylose into ethanol. Xylose is an unused waste sugar in the cellulosic ethanol production process. The researchers have recently filed a patent application for their process. In industrial fermentation processes, the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is commonly used for ethanol production. Current bioethanol production technologies can use only parts of the plants, namely the storage sugars, like glucose, sucrose or starch. However, this technology is in competition with food and feed production. Eckhard Boles, co-founder of the Swiss biofuel company Butalco GmbH and a professor at Goethe-University in Frankfurt, Germany, has therefore searched for ways of teaching the microorganisms to convert waste sugars, xylose and arabinose, into ethanol. Now, Boles and his colleagues have succeeded in genetically modifying industrial yeast strains, thus producing ethanol from xylose in a single step. Having already succeeded in transforming arabinose into ethanol by genetically modified yeast strains, Boles and his team have now found an efficient way to convert most of the plants energy into biofuel.
"Up to now scientists considered it as unpromising to equip yeast with a bacterial enzyme capable of converting xylose", Boles explains, "because all attempts had failed". But he and his team continued trying by exploring the enormous amounts of information in current genetic databases. Step by step they took 12 enzymes from different bacterial organisms and inserted the enzymes into yeast cells. Finally they discovered a new enzyme that even worked in yeast cells from a commercial ethanol plant. In contrast to current cellulosic ethanol technologies the new enzyme can convert xylose in a single step and is not inhibited by other chemical compounds normally present within the yeast cells. The researchers have recently filed a patent application for their process. "This is a break-through in the commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol", comments Boles.
Boles says: "We have successfully demonstrated the conversion of waste sugars into ethanol. However, ethanol is not the best renewable biofuel. There are other alcohols with many more promising properties." Together with his company, Butalco GmbH, Boles is now constructing yeast strains to convert plant waste materials into biobutanol, which is being seen as a more superior alternative fuel than ethanol due to its more favourable chemical and physical properties.
Climate change will not be taken seriously until the media highlights its significance, say researchers at the University of Liverpool. Dr Neil Gavin, from the School of Politics and Communication Studies, believes the way the media handles issues like climate change shapes the public's perception of its importance. Limited coverage is unlikely to convince readers that climate change is a serious problem that warrants immediate and decisive action. Researchers found that the total number of articles on climate change printed over three years was fewer than one month's worth of articles featuring health issues. The articles offered mixed messages about the seriousness and imminence of problems facing the environment.
Dr Gavin explains: "Our research suggests that the media is not treating these issues with the seriousness that scientists would say they deserve. The research company lpsos-MORI found that 50% of people think the jury is still out on the causes of global warming. The limited amount of media coverage - which tends to be restricted to the broadsheets - means that this statistic is unlikely to alter in the short-term. "Climate change, therefore, may not be high enough on the media agenda to stimulate the sort of public concern that prompts concerted political action. The media may well continue to focus its attention on health, the economy or crime, thereby drawing public attention away from the issue of climate change. "This is more likely when resources are stretched, government popularity is on the wane, or where more pressing, non-climate-related issues force the government to direct expenditure or invest its political capital and energy elsewhere." He added: "Even if the British Government wanted to push climate change further up the media agenda, it is not necessarily in a position to shape the debate that takes place in the media."
Glaciers and ice caps can be split into regions where snow is accumulated and regions where snow and ice melt-if more snow accumulates than melts, the glacier will advance and grow larger. Currently, accumulation areas for mountain glaciers are very small; melting rates are surpassing accumulation rates, leading to glacier thinning and retreat. By analyzing mass balance data from 86 mountain glaciers and ice caps from around the world, Bahr et al. find that given current accumulation areas and climate regimes, glaciers will lose about 27 percent of their volume before attaining equilibrium, a state where accumulation equals loss. As a result, at least 184 mm (7.2 inches) of sea level rise will occur in the next 100 years through melting of the world's mountain glaciers and ice caps even if climate does not continue to warm. However, if the climate continues to warm along current trends, at least 373 mm (14.6 inches) of sea level rise over the same period is expected as glaciers and ice caps lose at least 55 percent of their volume. Title: Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps: A lower bound Authors: David B. Bahr: Department of Physics and Computational Sciences, Regis University, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A.; Mark Dyurgerov and Mark F. Meier: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Globally, commercial ships emit almost half as much particulate pollution into the air as the total amount released by cars, according to a new study. Ship pollutants affect both the Earth's climate and the health of people living along coastlines. The study is the first to provide a global estimate of maritime shipping's total contribution to air particle pollution based on direct measurements of emissions. The authors estimate that worldwide, ships emit 0.9 teragrams, or about 2.2 million pounds, of particulate pollution each year. Shipping also contributes almost 30 percent of smog-forming nitrogen oxide gases. "Since more than 70 percent of shipping traffic takes place within 250 miles of the coastline, this is a significant health concern for coastal communities," says lead author Daniel Lack, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. He and his colleagues reported their findings on 25 February 2009 in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
Earlier research by one of the study's authors, James Corbett, of the University of Delaware, in Newark, linked particulate pollution to premature deaths among coastal populations. Commercial ships emit both particulate pollution and carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide from ships makes up roughly three percent of all human-caused emissions of the gas. But particulate pollution and carbon dioxide have opposite effects on climate. The particles have a global cooling effect at least five times greater than the global warming effect from ships' carbon dioxide emissions, Lack says. Lack is also with the Boulder-based Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, which is jointly supported by NOAA and the University of Colorado, Boulder. During the summer of 2006, Lack and colleagues, aboard the NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown, analyzed the exhaust from over 200 commercial vessels, including cargo ships, tankers and cruise ships, in the Gulf of Mexico, Galveston Bay, and the Houston Ship Channel. The researchers also examined the chemistry of particles in ship exhaust to understand what makes ships such hefty polluters.
Ships emit sulfates - the same polluting particles associated with diesel-engine cars and trucks that prompted improvements in on-road vehicle fuel standards. Sulfate emissions from ships vary with the concentration of sulfur in ship fuel, the authors find. Globally, fuel sulfur content is capped under the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships. As a result of the cap, some ships use "cleaner," low-sulfur fuels, while others continue to use the high-sulfur counterparts. Yet, sulfates make up just under half of shipping's total particle emissions, according to the new study. The other half, composed by organic pollutants and sooty, black carbon, are not directly targeted by today's regulations.
A 2008 study by Lack's team focused exclusively on soot (http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/2008-23.html). Emissions of these non-sulfate particles, the earlier study found, depend on the operating speed of the engine and the amount of lubricating oil needed to deal with wear and tear from burning less-refined fuels. "Fortunately, engines burning 'cleaner,' low-sulfur fuels tend to require less complex lubricants. So the sulfur fuel regulations have the indirect effect of reducing the organic particles emitted," says Corbett. One surprising result of burning low-sulfur fuels is that, although total particle emissions diminish, the time that particles spend in the air appears to increase. It's while they're airborne that particles pose a risk to human health and affect climate. Lack and colleagues find that the organic and black carbon portion of ship exhaust is less likely to form cloud droplets. As a result, these particles remain suspended for longer periods of time before being washed to the ground through precipitation.
High summer temperatures, pushed higher by global climate change, may bring with them a spike in hospitalizations for respiratory problems, according to an analysis of data from twelve European cities, from Dublin to Valencia. The data comes from the "Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe" (PHEWE), a multi-center, three-year collaboration between epidemiologists, meteorologists and experts in public health collaboration that investigated the short-term effects of weather in Europe. As climate change has gone from a scientific theory to an accepted and encroaching reality, more extreme weather, including hotter summers, is anticipated around the planet. But the secondary effects of climate change are also coming into sharper focus.
The PHEWE project evaluated the effects of higher temperatures on hospitalizations for a number of different conditions in Europe. They found that for every degree increase over a temperature threshold, there was a four percent average increase in respiratory-related hospitalizations, but not for cardiovascular or neurovascular- related problems. The results were published in the first issue for March of the American Thoracic Society's American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. "The PHEWE project represents the first attempt to evaluate the effect of temperature on several morbidity outcomes using a standardized methodology in a multi-center European study," wrote Paola Michelozzi Ph.D., head of Environmental Epidemiology at the Department Epidemiology of the Local Health Authority, in Rome.
The study tracked hospital admissions in twelve European cities. Each city provided data for a minimum of a three-year period between 1990 and 2001 that included hospital admissions, meteorological and air pollution data. They then computed a "maximum apparent temperature"-Tappmax for each city, using an index that accounted for both air temperature and humidity. At the far ends of the spectrum, the researchers found that Dublin had a Tappmax of 14.7ºC (about 58ºF) whereas Valencia's was 29.5ºC (about 85ºF). In most cities, each degree increase over 90 percent of the Tappmax, respiratory disease-related hospital admissions increased for all ages and especially in the 75+ age group. Interestingly, while cardiovascular deaths are known to go up with the temperature, there was a slight decrease in hospitalizations. The researchers speculated that the acute onset of cardiovascular events could result in sudden deaths before medical treatment was possible.
"The contrasting pattern between admissions and mortality could also be related to differences in physiopathologic mechanisms," wrote Dr. Michelozzi. "...[C]ardiovascular deaths during hot days tend to occur suddenly in persons whose health is compromised. Respiratory mortality, on the contrary, tends to peak later than cardiovascular mortality, with effects observed up to three weeks after exposure..." Despite the increase of respiratory-related hospitalizations overall, the observed effect was heterogeneous among cities, indicating the need for further study. "This is in part due to differences in exposure, the large variability among the cities analyzed, the differences in adaptive capacity and the vulnerability of populations due to their socio-demographic characteristics, as well as differences in the preventive measures in place," said Dr. Michelozzi. "Moreover, across European countries there is wide variation in healthcare and hospital admissions availability. Although all these differences are important, our results document an effect of high temperature on hospital admissions for respiratory causes in several cities, and this is the strength of the study."
"These findings are important for public health because the prevalence of chronic diseases, such as COPD, is expected to increase in developed countries as a result of population aging," wrote Dr. Michelozzi. "Furthermore, under climate change scenarios, the increase in extreme weather events and certain air pollutants, especially ozone, are likely to further aggravate chronic respiratory diseases. Public health interventions should be directed at preventing this additional burden of disease during the summer season. The observed heterogeneity of the health effects indicates a need to tailor programs for individual cities."
Live sustainably just because it's the right thing to do Do you "hope" that everyone will see the light and start living more sustainably to save the environment? If so, you may be doing more harm than good. So say an environmental scientist and an environmental ethicist in a provocative essay in the March 2009 issue of the international journal, The Ecologist. John Vucetich, assistant professor of animal ecology at Michigan Technological University, and Michael Nelson, associate professor of environmental ethics at Michigan State University, challenge the widespread belief that hope can motivate people to solve overwhelming social and environmental problems. "Is hope a placebo, a distraction, merely sowing the seeds of disillusionment?" they ask, in an opinion piece titled "Abandon Hope." The authors, co-founders and directors of the Conservation Ethics Group, an of environmental ethics consultancy, examine the proper role of hope in environmentalism. They suggest that hope's alternative is not hopelessness or despair, but rather the inherent virtue of "doing the right thing."
For decades, say Vucetich and Nelson, we have been hammered by the ceaseless thunder of messages predicting imminent environmental cataclysm: global climate change, air and water pollution, destruction of wildlife habitat, holes in the ozone. The response of environmentalists-from Al Gore to Jane Goodall-to this persistent message of hopelessness has focused on the need to remain hopeful. But hope may actually be counter-productive, Vucetich and Nelson suggest. "I have little reason to live sustainably if the only reason to do so is to hope for a sustainable future, because every other message I receive suggests that disaster is guaranteed," they explain.
People are hearing radically contradictory messages: · Scientists present evidence that profound environmental disaster is imminent. · It is urgent to live up to an extremely high standard of sustainable living. · The reason to live sustainably is that doing so gives hope for averting disaster. · Yet disaster is inevitable. "Given a predisposition to mistrust authorities, such contradictions justifiably elicit mistrust," say Vucetich and Nelson. If hope for averting environmental disaster is not the right reason to live sustainably, what is? The scholars say we must provide people with reasons to live sustainably that are rational and effective, based on virtues rather than consequences. That means equating sustainable living not with hope for a better future, but with basic virtues such as sharing and caring, virtues that we recognize as good in themselves and fundamentally the right way to live in the present, they explain. One advantage to such an approach is that it can motivate even people who do not believe that we are on the brink of environmental disaster, Vucetich and Nelson point out. It also clarifies the connection between environmental and social problems, a connection many people fail to grasp. "Instead of hope, we need to provide young people with reasons to live sustainably that are rational and effective," they say. "We need to lift up examples of sustainable living motivated by virtue more than by a dubious belief that such actions will avert environmental disaster."
Availability of solar cell materials could limit large-scale deployment of photovoltaics Berkeley -- Unconventional solar cell materials that are as abundant but much less costly than silicon and other semiconductors in use today could substantially reduce the cost of solar photovoltaics, according to a new study from the Energy and Resources Group and the Department of Chemistry at the University of California, Berkeley, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). These materials, some of which are highly abundant, could expand the potential for solar cells to become a globally significant source of low-carbon energy, the study authors said. The analysis, which appeared online Feb. 13 in Environmental Science & Technology, examines the two most pressing challenges to large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics as the world moves toward a carbon neutral future: cost per kilowatt hour and total resource abundance. The UC Berkeley study evaluated 23 promising semiconducting materials and discovered that 12 are abundant enough to meet or exceed annual worldwide energy demand. Of those 12, nine have a significant raw material cost reduction over traditional crystalline silicon, the most widely used photovoltaic material in mass production today.
The work provides a roadmap for research into novel solar cell types precisely when the U. S. Department of Energy and other funders plan to expand their efforts to link new basic research to deployment efforts as part of a national effort to greatly expand the use of clean energy, according to Daniel Kammen, UC Berkeley professor of energy and resources and director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory. Kammen and colleagues Cyrus Wadia of LBNL and A. Paul Alivisatos of UC Berkeley's Department of Chemistry embarked on an intensive research project to explore the question of whether high-impact materials have been overlooked or underdeveloped during the last several decades of solar cell research.
"The reason we started looking at new materials is because people often assume solar will be the dominant energy source of the future," said Wadia, a post-doctoral researcher who spearheaded the research. "Because the sun is the Earth's most reliable and plentiful resource, solar definitely has that potential, but current solar technology may not get us there in a timeframe that is meaningful, if at all. It's important to be optimistic, but when considering the practicalities of a solar-dominated energy system, we must turn our attention back to basic science research if we are to solve the problem." The most popular solar materials in use today are silicon and thin films made of CdTe (cadmium telluride) and CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide). While these materials have helped elevate solar to a major player in renewable energy markets, they are still limited by manufacturing challenges. Silicon is expensive to process and mass produce. Furthermore, it has become increasingly difficult to mine enough silicon to meet ever-growing consumer demand. Thin films, while significantly less costly than silicon and easier to mass produce, would rapidly deplete our natural resources if these technologies were to scale to terawatt hours of annual manufacturing production. A terawatt hour is a billion kilowatt hours.
"We believe in a portfolio of technologies and therefore continue to support the commercial development of all photovoltaic technologies," Kammen said. "Yet, what we've found is that some leading thin films may be difficult to scale as high as global electricity consumption." "It's not to say that these materials won't play a significant role," Wadia added, "but rather, if our objective is to supply the majority of electricity in this way, we must quickly consider alternative materials that are Earth-abundant, non-toxic and cheap. These are the materials that can get us to our goals more rapidly." The team identified a large material extraction cost (cents/watt) gap between leading thin film materials and a number of unconventional solar cell candidates, including iron pyrite, copper sulfide and copper oxide. They showed that iron pyrite is several orders of magnitude better than any alternative on important metrics of both cost and abundance. In the report, the team referenced some recent advances in nanoscale science to argue that the modest efficiency losses of unconventional solar cell materials would be offset by the potential for scaling up while saving significantly on materials costs.
Finding an affordable electricity supply is essential for meeting basic human needs, Kammen said, yet 30 percent of the world's population remains without reliable or sufficient electrical energy. Scientific forecasts predict that to meet the world's energy demands by 2050, global carbon emissions would have to grow to levels of irreversible consequences. "As the U.S. envisions a clean energy future consistent with the vision outlined by President Obama, it is exciting that the range of promising solar cell materials is expanding, ideally just as a national renewable energy strategy takes shape," said Kammen, who is co-director of the Berkeley Institute of the Environment and UC Berkeley's Class of 1935 Distinguished Chair of Energy.
The study by Wadia, Kammen and Alivisatos, available online at http://pubs.acs.org, will appear in the March print issue of Environmental Science & Technology. Wadia will discuss the report on April 14 at the upcoming spring meeting of the Materials Research Society, to be held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. The work was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Energy Foundation, the Karsten Family Foundation Endowment of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (http://rael.berkeley.edu), and the Class of 1935.
Globally, tropical trees in undisturbed forest are absorbing nearly a fifth of the CO2 released by burning fossil fuels. The researchers show that remaining tropical forests remove a massive 4.8 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions from the atmosphere each year. This includes a previously unknown carbon sink in Africa, mopping up 1.2 billion tonnes of CO2 each year. Published today in Nature, the 40 year study of African tropical forests-one third of the world's total tropical forest-shows that for at least the last few decades each hectare of intact African forest has trapped an extra 0.6 tonnes of carbon per year.
The scientists then analysed the new African data together with South American and Asian findings to assess the total sink in tropical forests. Analysis of these 250,000 tree records reveals that, on average, remaining undisturbed forests are trapping carbon, showing that they are a globally significant carbon sink. "We are receiving a free subsidy from nature," says Dr Simon Lewis, a Royal Society research fellow at the University of Leeds, and the lead author of the paper. "Tropical forest trees are absorbing about 18% of the CO2 added to the atmosphere each year from burning fossil fuels, substantially buffering the rate of climate change." The reason why the trees are getting bigger and mopping up carbon is unclear. A leading suspect is the extra CO2 in the atmosphere itself, which may be acting like a fertiliser. However, Dr Lewis warns, "Whatever the cause, we cannot rely on this sink forever. Even if we preserve all remaining tropical forest, these trees will not continue getting bigger indefinitely."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that globally human activity emits 32 billion tonnes of CO2 each year, but only 15 billion tonnes actually stays in the atmosphere adding to climate change. The new research shows exactly where some of the 'missing' 17 billion tonnes per year is going. "It's well known that about half of the 'missing' carbon is being dissolved in to the oceans, and that the other half is going somewhere on land in vegetation and soils, but we were not sure precisely where. According to our study about half the total carbon 'land sink' is in tropical forest trees," explains Dr Lewis. The study is released at a time when protecting tropical forests is gaining widespread support, and is likely to be a key theme of the upcoming negotiations to limit carbon emissions in Copenhagen later this year. Co-author on the study, Dr Lee White, Gabon's Chief Climate Change Scientist said, "To get an idea of the value of the sink, the removal of nearly 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by intact tropical forests, based on realistic prices for a tonne of carbon, should be valued at around £13 billion per year. This is a compelling argument for conserving tropical forests." "Predominantly rich polluting countries should be transferring substantial resources to countries with tropical forests to reduce deforestation rates and promote alternative development pathways," says Dr Lewis. There are also broader implications for rainforest biodiversity, as the ecology of tropical forests changes. Further study is needed on how the interactions of the millions of species that live in the tropics are being affected by the increasing size of rainforest trees.
The Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are melting, but the amounts that will melt and the time it will take are still unknown, according to Richard Alley, Evan Pugh professor of geosciences, Penn State. In the past, the Greenland ice sheet has grown when its surroundings cooled, shrunk when its surroundings warmed and even disappeared completely when the temperatures became warm enough. If the ice sheet on Greenland melts, sea level will rise about 23 feet, which will inundate portions of nearly all continental shores. However, Antarctica, containing much more water, could add up to another 190 feet to sea level. "We do not think that we will lose all, or even most, of Antarctica's ice sheet," said Alley. "But important losses may have already started and could raise sea level as much or more than melting of Greenland's ice over hundreds or thousands of years,"
Warming is expected to cause more precipitation on Greenland and Antarctica, adding snow. Previously, many scientists suggested that this would offset increasing melting. However, recent studies show that the ice sheets on both Greenland and in Antarctica are melting faster than the snow is replacing the mass. A number of things can contribute to the increased rate of melting in Greenland and Antarctica. Large lakes of water on the ice in Greenland pose a problem. This water, by wedging open a crack or crevasse in the ice, quickly flows through to the bottom, melting the bottom of the ice sheet and causing it to move more rapidly toward the ocean. Observers have seen lakes on the Greenland ice sheet drain at the speed of Niagara Falls. All ice sheets spread due to their large mass, but friction from the rocks beneath slows the ice's motion. Water beneath the ice allows the ice to move more rapidly. "Right now, the center of the Greenland ice sheet is frozen to the rocks," says Alley. "If the melt water moves inland as the world warms and gets to the bottom, it will thaw the bottom and unstick the ice from the rocks."
Another contributor to the melting ice sheets is the warming of the ocean. When ice shelves -- ice still connected to the ice sheet but floating over water -- melt, they also cause the ice sheet to flow faster. In Greenland, the Jakobshavn ice shelf has retreated more than 5 miles since 1992. Rocks and cliffs on the sides of fiords or inlets slow the seaward movement of the ice shelves. If these shelves break up and melt, the ice streams behind them move more rapidly. Ice shelf failures have also occurred on Antarctica where, for example, most of the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated in March of 2002 and increased the rate of ice stream flow eight times. "Water temperature is more important than air temperature in melting the ice shelves," says Alley. "However, both contribute." Warmer oceans, caused by general global warming or local events can trigger more breakups of ice shelves and faster flow of ice streams in Antarctica. In Greenland, sustained increase in temperatures of only a few degrees will remove the ice. Alley believes he knows the direction to go to gain a better understanding of the ice sheets, how they work and the effect they have on climate change. Although those who study ice sheets have long modeled ice sheet behavior, simulations of the whole earth system typically have not included ice sheets along with the atmosphere, oceans and clouds, in their models. Past atmospheric modelers usually treated the ice sheets simply as white mountains. "They are not white mountains and they need to be modeled," said Alley. "We need to have them in the models to figure out how the system works." Alley notes that a collaboration of government and academic scientists created the atmospheric and ocean models, but collaborations to model the ice are only just being developed.
Just over a year ago, the U.S. ethanol industry was still in overdrive, fueling a wave of new factories to keep pace with surging demand for the corn-based gasoline additive. But the boom has since stalled amid a deep economic downturn that has stifled demand, one of many threats to the fledgling industry that were forecast in a 2007 study by two University of Illinois researchers. "Our research found lots of storm clouds that posed risks for ethanol plants, even though the industry was go-go-go at the time," said Andrew Isserman, a professor of agriculture economics and of urban and regional planning. "The last 15 months have proven just how risky it is." Isserman and U. of I. doctoral candidate Sarah Low studied the ethanol industry in 2007 to gauge what areas might be good locations for ethanol plants and whether factories would provide an economic boost for towns that were then clamoring to hitch onto the ethanol bandwagon.
Their findings, first released in late 2007 on the campus's farmdoc.uiuc.edu Web site and which now appear in the current issue of Economic Development Quarterly, foreshadow an industry downturn that has seen dozens of plants shuttered or forced into bankruptcy as excess production capacity yields mounting financial losses. The study found that plants are beset with a host of uncertainties, ranging from shifts in federal energy policy and global economics to changing technology that threatens the long-term viability of corn as an ethanol blend. Although factory growth has been halted by a sour economy, the findings could help guide economic development decisions when the industry rebounds, said Isserman, a member of the U. of I. Institute of Government and Public Affairs, a campus think tank. "Ethanol plants are a risky business, so communities need to be careful," he said. "And even if a plant is a good fit, community leaders need to realize it's not going to transform their economy."
He says a dramatic shift that cut gasoline prices in half since last summer - closing plants and shelving plans for others -- showcases a key economic peril of ethanol plants. As gasoline prices slid, so did prices for ethanol, which is tethered to the energy market. But corn prices remained relatively high, netting production losses that put some plants out of business and landed others in bankruptcy, halting several years of robust growth for the fledgling industry. "The bottom line for local communities is to consider the employment volatility that could occur, not just the employment growth," Low said. "You could end up sitting on a shuttered plant." Jobs are a big draw for small, rural communities seeking to capitalize on their proximity to cornfields that feed the plants. But the study found that industry forecasts vastly overestimate employment gains.
While the industry projects plants producing 100 million gallons of ethanol a year can create more than 1,000 plant and spin-off jobs, the study found that similar plants would net a maximum of 250 jobs, based on an analysis of ethanol facilities proposed in three Illinois communities and one in Nebraska. "The critical flawed assumption was that plants create a lot of local jobs growing corn," Isserman said. "But the corn would have been grown anyway. It was just sold to different markets." Job and economic gains also have to be weighed against sometimes hefty infrastructure expenses, such as water, sewer, road and rail improvements needed to serve plant needs, the study says. "I think a lot of communities see ethanol as a panacea, but there is no silver bullet," Low said. "Every community needs to think about their own pros and cons, whether they're recruiting an ethanol plant, a manufacturer or any other facility." Plants also could fall prey to new technology that seeks to make ethanol with less costly cellulosic materials - such as switchgrasses or miscanthus - rather than corn, the study says. Low says it may be possible to retool existing plants, but suspects many smaller ones would spring up near less-productive land because farmers are unlikely to convert profitable cornfields to lower-grossing cellulosic materials. She hopes the study guides local leaders if technology nets a new wave of plant building. "I think we're going to see a lot of smaller plants with even smaller economic benefits," she said. "If those communities have the needed infrastructure, a plant may be good economic development policy. But the message of our research is that they need to be realistic about the employment effects and the economic impact of those projects."
The study found that more traditional agricultural-based facilities, such as a plant that makes corn chips, offer economic benefits similar to ethanol plants, without the risks. "I think what we learned from this research was that even if your community has what it takes to land an ethanol plant, it's not so clear that you want to jump into it," Isserman said. "This is a rapidly changing industry and ethanol plants are not a savior for local economies."
When the sun rides low on the horizon and winter chills wrap us all in down and fleece, global trade brings blueberries from South America, oranges from Israel. But trade in exotic goods also comes with significant local economic costs, explains Charles Perrings, professor of environmental economics at Arizona State University. In the rush to market, products also bring hitchhikers: invasive species. These exotics often overtake native species, ravage agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and damage ecosystems and, ultimately, economics. Disproportionately so in developing countries' economies, Perrings says.
How can what seems like only a few zebra mussels and Mediterranean fruit flies (Medfly) have such a large economic effect? Besides obvious direct impacts of pathogens and losses to biodiversity, disrupted ecosystems also lose resilience, the ability to spring back from environmental challenges and human-based insults. The numbers are staggering. Perrings, whose four-volume "Ecological Economics" has just been published, refers to one estimate that the annual economic damage due to invasive species is equal to 53 percent of agricultural GDP in the United States, 31 percent in the United Kingdom and 48 percent in Australia, but 96 percent, 78 percent and 112 percent of agricultural GDP in South Africa, India and Brazil, respectively. What is the solution? In a nutshell: thinking locally and acting globally. According to Perrings' study "individual countries need to consider how to contain trade-related species dispersal and international cooperation needs to act to reduce the invasive species risks of trade - especially those stemming from poor country exports."
Perrings' studies in the School of Life Sciences at Arizona State University focus on the role of global drivers of biodiversity change, particularly trade in altering ecosystems services and in developing both institutional and policy responses. He and colleague Ann Kinzig, associate professor in ASU School of Life Sciences, direct the ecoSERVICES group in ASU's College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. This group operates a number of international research programs, including "Advancing Conservation in a Social Context," funded by the MacArthur Foundation. The ecoSERVICES group concentrates on "the causes and consequences of change in ecosystem services - the benefits that people derive from the biophysical environment - and analyzes biodiversity change in terms of its impacts on the things that people care about."
Most recently, a group of researchers from ecoSERVICES, in partnership with the Civil and Environmental Engineering Departments at ASU, were awarded a $2 million grant by the National Science Foundation. The Sustainable Infrastructure for Water and Energy Supply (SINEWS) project will examine the resilience and sustainability of power and water infrastructures in semi-arid urban settings. "The principle challenge to building a science of sustainability is the development of predictive models of systems change that enable society to evaluate mitigation options alongside adaptation," says Perrings. The economic problems posed by invasive species, he believes, will require "measures to 'internalize' the external costs of trade - to confront exporters and importers with the true cost of their actions.
"But, it also requires defensive measures to mitigate import risks, to control established invasive species, and to coordinate international action to regulate trade routes," Perrings adds. "This problem is particularly difficult to contend with in low income countries. They are vulnerable to the effects of invasive species, but also have fewer resources to adopt effective sanitary or other control measures." What could these insights mean on one's own home turf? The recent move to buy locally, combined with well regulated imports might come with an added pay-off to the pocket book, as well carbon foot print: healthier ecosystems.
Stephen Schneider also calls for academics to help by doing outreach and says developed nations must get their own greenhouse gas emissions under control if they expect developing nations to do so. "Business managers of media organizations, you are screwing up your responsibility by firing science and environment reporters who are frankly the only ones competent to do this," said climate researcher and policy analyst Stephen Schneider, in assessing the current state of media coverage of global warming and related issues.
Schneider, a coordinating lead author of chapter 19 in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in 2007, is calling for the news media to employ trained reporters in covering global warming. "Science is not politics. You can't just get two opposing viewpoints and think you've done due diligence. You've got to cover the multiple views and the relative credibility of each view," said Schneider, a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. "But that is not usually the problem of the well-trained reporters, who understand what is credible.
"The problem is CNN just fired their science team. Why didn't they fire their economics team or their sports team?" "Why don't they send their general assignment reporters out to cover the Superbowl?" Schneider said. Researchers have to do their part, too, he said, by clearly explaining issues to reporters in succinct terms. "I have arguments with some of my scientific colleagues, who think it is irresponsible to go out and talk when you can only get 5 seconds on the evening news, a couple of quotes in the New York Times, or five minutes in front of Congress," Schneider said. "Well, you know what guys, that's just how it is," he said. "And if you think that you have a higher calling and you're not going to play the game because they don't give you the time to tell the whole story, then all it means is that you've passed the buck to others who know the topic less well." "You have to have your elevator statement or people won't listen to you," Schneider said. "What I always suggest is that scientists find metaphors that convey both urgency and uncertainty, so that you can get people's attention while at the same time not overstating the case," he said. "Then you have websites and backup articles and books where you can give the full story, but you have to have your sound bite and your op ed piece."
A disproportionate share of the effects of global warming are going to fall on developing nations, along with the poor and the elderly in wealthier nations, according to Schneider, who added that 75 percent of the accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere came from 20 percent of the world's people, who live in wealthy countries. "We've been using the atmosphere as a free sewer to dump our tailpipe and smokestack waste since the Victorian industrial revolution and now we tell the developing world, sorry, guys, the sewer's full," he said. Telling the developing world they can't use energy resources they have at hand, such as coal and natural gas, won't have any effect unless we offer them alternatives that are cleaner, Schneider said. He said the U.S. has to accelerate the rate at which we are developing green energy sources such as solar and wind. "The U.S. has to walk the walk if they expect to talk the talk and convince China and India and Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico - not to say anything about the even poorer countries with less skill and money - into following suit," he said. "We have to clean up our own act and then help them clean up theirs with technology and some resources."
Schneider said that we also have to work to mitigate the impacts on poor and elderly people in developed countries. Although it is impossible to lay any particular weather event at the feet of global warming, nonetheless one can get an idea of how the expected increase in extreme weather events will affect people by looking at the effects of storms such as Hurricane Katrina. "Who died? The poor," he said. The European heat wave in 2003 is another example, in which approximately 50,000 people died. "You know what they were primarily? Elderly. The elderly are much more vulnerable and they did not have proper adaptation measures," he said. " "These events are going to happen dramatically more often than they used to because of warming," Schneider said. "National governments have to consult local leaders in both the public and private sectors to figure out the most politically and cost effective solutions to help localities cope with increasing global warming".
When the Drake Oil Well in Titusville, Pennsylvania began seeping crude oil 150 years ago, humanity allowed itself to become engulfed in the ecology of oil, according to a Penn State environmental historian. Now in the midst of an energy transition, the U.S. and the world need to keep moving forward toward alternative methods of power generation. "American consumers must take stock and understand our dependency on oil in the context of how we got to this point," said Brian Black, associate professor of history and environmental studies, Penn State Altoona. "Just as a certain path of consumption led us to petroleum dependence, a path will lead us out of it. These paths, of course, are composed by the choices made by the American consumer."
In the late 1800s, oil was not a commodity. In fact, crude oil was a product looking for a purpose. While people did distill a little kerosene and use it in place of whale oil in lamps, one of the first commercial products produced was petroleum jelly -- Vaseline -- patented in 1872 and discovered when it accumulated in the equipment and workers found it softened their hands. It took Henry Ford and the mass production of automobiles to push the industry into complex processes like cracking, fractionation and distillation that now produce the gasoline, kerosene, Jet A, benzene and the myriad other products that derive from crude oil. This also opened up industry to other petroleum-based products including plastics, fabrics, coatings, medications, cosmetics and the entire world of petrochemicals that permeate modern life.
"Together, these uses composed a dependence so pervasive that it remade the ecology of human life," said Black. "This slow growth of petroleum products over the 20th century led to a centrality in American life that no resource had possessed for humans before. This occurred to the point that in the 21st century petroleum dictates decisions of national security and human security," he told attendees at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science today (Jan. 14) in Chicago. Such a dependence on petroleum really contradicts the United States' founding principles. Black considers that it would be a telling exercise to imagine the reaction of the founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson or Benjamin Franklin perhaps, allowing the country's autonomy to become compromised by the necessity of a resource for which the nation was beholden to others.
"By declaring our dependence on oil, we can clearly view our history in a way that will allow us to better approach the problem of our energy future," said Black. According to Black, history tells us that consumers never imagine the next energy source, that the transition from one source of energy to another is unforeseen and sometimes unguided and that in the past, governments have not been involved in these transitions. "In the 21st century, it may be that governments need to be involved," said Black. "We see some of that in the way President Obama is approaching the nation's plans for future energy." Regardless of who initiates the change, it is one that must take place if we are going to continue our way of life as it is with no major disturbances. From the beginning, it was known that crude oil was a finite resource and that eventually it would run out. It seems that only now does the American public understand this reality.
Black suggests that our energy transition may begin with a reevaluation of our uses for crude. One of the first things to go in a switch to alternative energy sources would be petroleum-powered transportation, according to Black. Burning derivatives of crude oil would have to stop because the commodity is too valuable for use as a feedstock in chemical processes. "In the future, I think, people will look back at burning petroleum as a wasteful practice that demonstrated 20th-century Americans' lack of appreciation of petroleum's diverse applications," said Black. "That will likely seem jarring to the energy sensibilities of the 21st century. "We have no definable way to say what energy transitions will take place or when a culture has to let go of everything that they know," said Black. "My argument is that we are in an era where we will reconsider some of our most basic ways of using and acquiring energy," said Black. "We have a culture now that is more open to these new ideas and concepts than ever before." Despite lower gasoline prices, Black believes that the country and the world are ready to meet the challenges of a change away from oil. He is optimistic that Americans will take the knowledge they now have of how problematic oil dependency is to the country and make the decisions that will ensure our future security and freedom. By declaring our dependence on petroleum, Black argues that we will help to establish a more independent energy future.
The global travel logs of greenhouse gases are based on atmospheric sampling locations sprinkled over the Earth and short towers that measure the uptake or release of carbon from a small patch of forest. But those measurements don't agree with current computer models of how plants and soils behave. A University of Michigan researcher is developing a unique way to reconcile these crucial data. "If we're going to adapt to climate change, we need to be able to predict what the climate will be," said Anna Michalak, assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences. "We want to know how the sources and sinks of carbon will evolve in the future, and the only way we can manage climate change is with scientific information." Michalak is discussing the work at the symposium "Improving Understanding of Carbon Flux Variability Using Atmospheric Inverse Modeling" Sunday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting here. She co-organized the session, "The Carbon Budget: Can We Reconcile Flux Estimates?" with Joyce Penner, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences.
For some 50 years, scientists have measured the amount of carbon dioxide in the air on a large scale, at an increasing number of locations sprinkled across the globe, and by sampling very small areas. Together with inventories of fossil fuel use, that's given good data about how much carbon is being pumped into the atmosphere---currently approximately 8 billion tons a year. It's also known that half of that stays in the atmosphere. The rest comes to rest in the oceans, the earth, or is gobbled up by plants during photosynthesis. But then the data gets harder to come by and scientists have had to make some assumptions. Those flux towers only cover a few places on Earth, and it's too cumbersome to collect data on small areas. Even a powerful new tool Michalak will be using---NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), a satellite designed to monitor atmospheric carbon---does not paint a perfect picture. She compares the thin data strips it harvests with wrapping a basketball with floss.
The problem: Michalak said the data takes such a big-picture approach that it is difficult to isolate carbon being emitted or taken up in specific regions, or even countries. Scientists are left with an understanding of carbon sources that isn't nimble enough to understand the variability, or to be confident about predicting the future. Michalak has developed a robust way to use available data to understand this variability called "geostatistical inverse modeling." This method breaks the globe into small regions and examines how much CO2 must have been emitted in each region to achieve the concentrations measured at atmospheric sample points. This method also allows her and her collaborators to use information from other existing satellites that measure the Earth's surface to supplement the information from the atmospheric monitoring network. Eventually, this method aims to trace the carbon levels at each sample point to a particular source or sink on the surface.
The technique, Michalak says, is like figuring out where the cream was originally poured in a cup of half-stirred coffee. "Winds and weather patterns mix CO2 in the atmosphere just like stirring mixes cream in a cup of coffee," she said. "As soon as you start stirring, you lose some information about where and when the cream was originally added to the cup. With careful measurements and models, however, much of this information can be recovered." "One of our big questions is how carbon sources and sinks evolve," Michalak said. "This is all with an eye on prediction and management."
Tomorrow's fuel-cell vehicles may be powered by enzymes that consume cellulose from woodchips or grass and exhale hydrogen. Researchers at Virginia Tech, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the University of Georgia have produced hydrogen gas pure enough to power a fuel cell by mixing 14 enzymes, one coenzyme, cellulosic materials from nonfood sources, and water heated to about 90 degrees (32 C).
The group announced three advances from their "one pot" process: 1) a novel combination of enzymes, 2) an increased hydrogen generation rate -- to as fast as natural hydrogen fermentation, and 3) a chemical energy output greater than the chemical energy stored in sugars - the highest hydrogen yield reported from cellulosic materials. "In addition to converting the chemical energy from the sugar, the process also converts the low-temperature thermal energy into high-quality hydrogen energy - like Prometheus stealing fire," said Percival Zhang, assistant professor of biological systems engineering in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Virginia Tech. "It is exciting because using cellulose instead of starch expands the renewable resource for producing hydrogen to include biomass," said Jonathan Mielenz, leader of the Bioconversion Science and Technology Group at ORNL. The researchers used cellulosic materials isolated from wood chips, but crop waste or switchgrass could also be used. "If a small fraction - 2 or 3 percent - of yearly biomass production were used for sugar-to-hydrogen fuel cells for transportation, we could reach transportation fuel independence," Zhang said. (He added that the 3 percent figure is for global transportation needs. The U.S. would actually need to convert about 10 percent of biomass - which would be 1.3 billion tons of usable biomass).
Increasing greenhouse gases could delay, or even postpone indefinitely the recovery of stratospheric ozone in some regions of the Earth, a new study suggests. This change might take a toll on public health. Darryn W. Waugh, an atmospheric scientist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, and his colleagues report that climate change could provoke variations in the circulation of air in the lower stratosphere in tropical and southern mid-latitudes - a band of the Earth including Australia and Brazil. The circulation changes would cause ozone levels in these areas never to return to levels that were present before decline began, even after ozone-depleting substances have been wiped out from the atmosphere.
"Global warming causes changes in the speed that the air is transported into and through the lower stratosphere [in tropical and southern mid-latitudes]," says Waugh. "You're moving the air through it quicker, so less ozone gets formed." He and his team present their findings in the Feb. 5 Geophysical Research Letters, a publication of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Dan Lubin, an atmospheric scientist who has studied the relationship between ozone depletion and variations in the ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth, says Waugh's findings could bode ill for people living in the tropics and southern mid-latitudes.
If ozone levels never return to pre-1960 levels in those regions, "the risk of skin cancer for fair-skinned populations living in countries like Australia and New Zealand, and probably in Chile and Argentina too, will be greater in the 21st century than it was during the 20th century," says Lubin, who is at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. and did not participate in the research. Ozone is a gas which is naturally present in the atmosphere and absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the Sun that can harm living beings-for instance, by causing human skin cancer. This protective molecule has been in decline in the stratosphere since the 1970s due to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of human-made substances (mostly chlorofluorocarbon and bromofluorocarbon compounds) that destroy ozone. Since the late 1980s, most countries have adhered to the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty to phase out production of ozone-depleting substances. Researchers at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. collaborated with Waugh in the new study. The team forecast effects on ozone recovery by means of simulations using a computer model known as the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model.
Not all regions face worse prospects for ozone recovery as a result of climate change, the scientists find. In polar regions and northern mid-latitudes, restoration of ozone in the lower stratosphere will suffer little impact from increasing greenhouse gases, their projections indicate. Indeed, in the upper stratosphere, climate change causes a drop in temperatures that slows down some of the chemical reactions that destroy ozone. So, recovery might be reached in those parts of the atmosphere earlier than forecast, even decades before the removal of ozone-depleting gases. While scientists have long suspected that climate change might be altering the dynamics of stratospheric ozone recovery, Waugh's team is the first to estimate the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on the recovery of ozone by region. Waugh says his study will help scientists attribute ozone variations to the right agent. "Ozone is going to change in response to both ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases," he says, "If you don't consider climate change when studying the ozone recovery data, you may get pretty confused."
Scientists have found proof in Bermuda that the planet's sea level was once more than 21 meters (70 feet) higher about 400,000 years ago than it is now. Their findings were published in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews Wednesday, Feb. 4. Storrs Olson, research zoologist at the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History, and geologist Paul Hearty of the Bald Head Island Conservancy discovered sedimentary and fossil evidence in the walls of a limestone quarry in Bermuda that documents a rise in sea level during an interglacial period of the Middle Pleistocene in excess of 21 meters above its current level. Hearty and colleagues had published preliminary evidence of such a sea-level rise nearly a decade ago, which was met with skepticism among geologists. This marine fossil evidence now provides unequivocal evidence of the timing and extent of this event. The nature of the sediments and fossil accumulation found by Olson and Hearty was not compatible with the deposits left by a tsunami but rather with the gradual, yet relatively rapid, increase in the volume of the planet's ocean caused by melting ice sheets.
A rise in sea level to such a height would have ramifications well beyond geology and climate modeling. For the organisms of coastal areas, and particularly for low islands and archipelagos, such a rise would have been catastrophic. The Florida peninsula, for example, would have been reduced to a relatively small archipelago along the higher parts of its central ridge. "We have only to look at Bermuda to begin to assess the impact for terrestrial organisms or seabirds dependant on dry land for nesting sites," said Olson. "This group of islands in the Atlantic was so compromised as a nesting site for seabirds that at least one species of shearwater became extinct as well as the short-tailed albatross, marking the end of all resident albatrosses in the North Atlantic."
Determining the timing and extent of this global rise in sea level is not only important for interpreting the influence that it may have had on biogeographical patterns and extinctions of organisms on islands and low-lying continental coastal areas, it is also critical for anticipating the possible effects of future climate change. This particular interglacial period is considered by some scientists to be a suitable comparison to our current interglacial period. With future carbon dioxide levels possibly rising higher than any time in the past million years, it is important to consider the potential effects on polar ice sheets.
Biogeographers, conservationists and many others in the biological sciences must take these findings into consideration, Olson urged. "These findings are incredibly important and have major relevance because of their potential predictive value since this sea-level rise took place during the interglacial period most similar to the present one now in progress. It thus becomes essential that the full extent and duration of this event be more widely recognized and acknowledged."
An in-depth study by Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Corp. has found that plant and forestry waste and dedicated energy crops could sustainably replace nearly a third of gasoline use by the year 2030. The goal of the "90-Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study" was to assess whether and how a large volume of cellulosic biofuel could be sustainably produced, assuming technical and scientific progress continues at expected rates. The study was conducted over a period of nine months. Researchers assessed the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of annually producing 90 billion gallons of ethanol - sufficient to replace more than 60 billion of the estimated 180 billion gallons of gasoline expected to be used annually by 2030. Ninety billion gallons a year exceeds the U.S. Department of Energy's goal for ethanol production established in 2006.
The "90 Billion Gallon Study" assumes 75 billion gallons would be ethanol made from nonfood cellulosic feedstocks and 15 billion gallons from corn-based ethanol. The study examined four sources of biofuels: agricultural residue, such as corn stover and wheat straw; forest residue; dedicated energy crops, including switchgrass; and short rotation woody crops, such as willow and poplar trees. It examines the costs of producing, harvesting, storing and transporting these sources to newly built biorefineries. Key findings Using a newly developed tool known as the Biofuels Deployment Model, or BDM, Sandia researchers determined that 21 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol could be produced per year by 2022 without displacing current crops. The Renewable Fuels Standard, part of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, calls for ramping up biofuels production to 36 billion gallons a year by 2022. The 90 Billion Gallon Study, which focused only on starch-based and cellulosic ethanol, found that an increase to 90 billion gallons of ethanol could be sustainably achieved by 2030 within real-world economic and environmental parameters. Other findings:
Sandia's '90 Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study' concludes that 90 billion gallons per year of biomass-derived ethanol can be produced and distributed with enduring government commitment and continued technological progress . Continued support of R&D and initial commercialization is critical because sustained technological progress and commercial validation is a prerequisite to affordably producing the large volumes of ethanol considered in this study. Policy incentives such as a federal cap and trade program, carbon taxes, excise tax credits and loan guarantees for cellulosic biofuels are important to mitigate the risk of oil market volatility. The domestic investment for biofuels production is projected to be virtually the same as the investment required to sustain long-term domestic petroleum production. Cellulosic biofuels could compete without incentives with oil priced at $90 per barrel, assuming a reduction in total costs as advanced biofuels technologies mature.
Large-scale cellulosic biofuel production could be achieved at or below current water consumption levels of petroleum fuels from on-shore oil production and refining. The industrial processes by which nonfood forms of biomass are converted into sugars suitable for production of biofuels were a focus of the study. Sandia's analysis also included land use, water availability, energy used to produce cellulosic biomass, transportation of feedstocks and other potential leverage points for the development and use of cellulosic biofuels. In conducting its research, Sandia utilized models that examined current and future technologies for development of ethanol. Future enhancements to Sandia's BDM are planned, contingent on additional partnerships. Such improvements to the current software tool, says Sandia business development associate Carrie Burchard, would provide an even more comprehensive systems understanding of the biofuels industry.
An international team led by scientists from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory (FPL) have translated the genetic code that explains the complex biochemical machinery making brown-rot fungi uniquely destructive to wood. The same processes that provide easier access to the energy-rich sugar molecules bound up in the plant's tenacious architecture are leading to innovations for the biofuels industry. The research, conducted by more than 50 authors, is reported in the February 4 online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Among the challenges to more cost-effective production of biofuels from cellulosic biomass-the fibrous material of whole plants-is to find effective means to work around the polymer lignin, the scaffolding that endows the plant's architecture with rigidity and protection from pests. By doing so, the organic compound cellulose-the long chain of glucose (sugar) units can be unbound, broken down, fermented, and distilled into liquid transportation fuel. This is where the destructive capabilities of rot come in. "The microbial world represents a little explored yet bountiful resource for enzymes that can play a central role in the deconstruction of plant biomass-an early step in biofuel production," said Eddy Rubin, Director of the DOE JGI, where the genome sequencing was conducted. "The brown-rot Postia placenta's genome offers us a detailed inventory of the biomass-degrading enzymes that this and other fungi possess." Rubin pointed to a complementary strategy that DOE and its Bioenergy Research Centers are pursuing of targeting a new generation of plants-perennial grasses and fast-growing trees such as poplar-bred specifically as biomass for biofuels. Among the desirable characteristics of biofuel "feedstocks" is the ease by which they can be deconstructed. Traditionally, harsh chemicals and expensive high-heat treatments have been employed. In parallel with the development of improved feedstocks is finding just the right mix of enzymes to get the most out of converting biomass into fuel.
"Nature offers some guidance here," said Dan Cullen, FPL scientist and one of the senior authors on the PNAS paper. "Postia has, over its evolution, shed the conventional enzymatic machinery for attacking plant material. Instead, the evidence suggests that it utilizes an arsenal of small oxidizing agents that blast through plant cell walls to depolymerize the cellulose. This biological process opens a door to more effective, less-energy intensive and more environmentally-sound strategies for more lignocellulose deconstruction." Few organisms in nature can efficiently breakdown lignin into smaller, more manageable chemical units amenable to biofuels production. The exceptions are the basidiomycete fungi, which include white-rot and brown-rot-wood-decayers and essential caretakers of carbon in forest systems. In addition, brown-rot fungi have significant economic impact because their ability to wreak havoc with wooden structures. A significant portion of the U.S. timber harvest is diverted toward replacing such decayed materials.
Unlike white-rot fungi, previously characterized by DOE JGI and FPL, which simultaneously degrades lignin and cellulose, brown-rot rapidly depolymerizes the cellulose in wood without removing the lignin. Up until this study, the underlying genetics and biochemical mechanisms were poorly understood. DNA sequence is the first step in the central dogma of molecular biology first articulated over 50 years ago by Francis Crick-the transfer of information from DNA to RNA, which in turn, is translated into protein products, such as enzymes. Postia's genome sequence was also the first step in the process that the scientific team employed to home in on the subset of data, the transcriptome, that encodes the specific enzyme activity, and the secretome, the products exported from the cell. "For the first time we have been able to compare the genetic blue prints of brown-rot, white-rot and soft-rot fungi which play a major role in the carbon cycle of our planet," said Randy Berka, another one of the study's senior authors and Director of Integrative Biology, at Novozymes, Inc., of Davis, Calif. "Such comparisons will increase our understanding of the diverse mechanisms and chemistries involved in lignocellulose degradation. This type of information may empower industrial biotechnologists to devise new strategies to enhance efficiencies and reduce costs associated with biomass conversion for renewable fuels and chemical intermediates."
